And It’s Still Too Early

I’ve been complaining for months (“…feels like years”) that it was too early to declare Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama or anyone the winner in the presidential candidate sweepstakes. Just 36 hours ago, Obama was being coronated in the press and in the polls. Odd. Wasn’t Clinton the designated democratic nominee – as designated by the press – just weeks ago?

You betchya. Until the (almost unnoticed) Wyoming primary the day after Iowa, not a single secret ballot had been cast. There are two major states coming up in days, Michigan and Florida, for which votes will be cast, BUT WILL NOT COUNT (the delegates from those states will not be seated). Super Tuesday is coming up, you say? 44% of all the delegates to the DNC will be elected after Super Tuesday (probably when the press isn’t looking). And since delegate are chosen proportionally, Obama apparently won exactly as many in New Hampshire as has Clinton.

I hesitate to link to The Daily Kos, but Markos himself has some interesting delegate count numbers.

And the situation for the Democrats is crystal clear compared to the Republicans, who stand to go into Super Tuesday with 4 different candidates having one 4 different primaries (Iowa – Huckabee, NH – McCain, S.C. – Thompson, – Fla. – Giuliani), and a fifth having coming in second in all of them. Check that. Romney may indeed finish first in Michigan, where his father was governor.

Nothing, but nothing, has been decided. And won’t be any time soon.

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