Analysis: Obama Wins, Clinton Can’t Lose

Because of the closeness of the race, it is very likely that “super delegates” will determine who the Democrats nominate. Chris Bowers does the math.

[T]he largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

Super delegates will retire into smoke filled rooms to hash out, for their own reasons and out of sight of the cameras, the best candidate to run for president.

Back to the future, I’d say.

H/T to Glenn at Instapundit.

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